This could have some repercussions..

[Eklipze3k]

Funny, I don't recall saying it would happen in our lifetimes, just that that's likely how it'll happen, the same way driverless vehicles can only really work properly if all vehicles are driverless. I expect both of these concepts to exist in tandem, but I don't expect it to happen before I die.

 

[AndyRKett]

If you look in detail at the model 3 Tesla this car has been specifically designed with view that it could be used as a pool car, esentially you buy your car and when you're not using it, someone else can hail it like a self driving taxi. You can customise every aspect of the car electronically so that when you get back in it, everything returns to your personal settings, including the directions of the air vents on the dash. You can lock people out of being able to get in the glovebox or the boot so all your personal items can be kept safe, and it already has all the cameras, sensors and other devices to make it self driving, but is also over equipped to be able to adopt better technology as it develops.

People keep banging on about infrastructure but forget that 60 years ago we didn't have any motorways, and 100 years ago most roads outside of towns and cities where nothing more than a dirt track.

In the last 70 years we have gone from relying almost entirely on Coal for all our electrictiy needs to building gas, wind, solar, hydro and geothermal and build many nuclear powerstations in that time also.

So it has to be said not only are we very good at building infrastructure but we are also very good at investing huge amounts of money.

I have absolutely no doubt that the infrastructure will not be a problem, there are a lot of very clever people already preparing for the day everyone is driving electric cars.

 

[Schumi2001]

Building a 'filling station' that can simultaneously charge, say, 10 cars all at once, from nil to 500 miles range, is a massive, huge, and so far, insurmountable problem.

The only way it can be done at the moment is by using massive battery packs which can be charged at quiet times and then be used to charge the vehicles at busier times - but even then, you get into charge throttling issues.

We're being pushed into this too quickly and before the technology is anywhere near ready for us to even think about phasing out fossil fuelled cars.

 

[AndyRKett]

Building a 'filling station' that can simultaneously charge, say, 10 cars all at once, from nil to 500 miles range, is a massive, huge, and so far, insurmountable problem.

The only way it can be done at the moment is by using massive battery packs which can be charged at quiet times and then be used to charge the vehicles at busier times - but even then, you get into charge throttling issues.

We're being pushed into this too quickly and before the technology is anywhere near ready for us to even think about phasing out fossil fuelled cars.

I have no idea what you are talking about...

The largest Supercharger station in the world is in China and has 50 bays for charging tesla cars.

Now with superchargers they work in pairs so if you have one car on one of the pairs then you get 120KW charging, if you have two cars on that pair then you get 60KW charging, but with 50 bays you get 25 cars being charged at full power. That is a drop in the ocean of what the grid is capable of supplying.

Now currently there are no electric cars with a 500 mile range, however the range is entirely dependent on the size of the battery and the size of the battery will simply increase the charging time. So if you doubled the size of a battery in a top end electric car you would get 500 miles range

The Tesla Truck is planned to be charged by a new generation Tesla "Megacharger" these will charge the trucks to a 500 mile range in just 30 minutes with a 1MW charger. Currently the grid in the UK is capable of providing 90GW of power and so that means charging 90,000 Trucks to 500 mile range every 30 minutes. Thats 4,320,000 trucks charged per day from the current grid (I know that's without power for anything else) but there are currently only about a tenth of that number in trucks on the road in the UK somewhere around 450,000, so you could charge them to do 1000 miles a day and still only use one fifth of the capacity of the grid.

Currently we use far less than the full capacity of the grid you can look on line and see what the current demand is, at the moment its about 34GW for the whole of the UK grid, and despite the up take of electric cars the demand for electricity has been dropping year on year as we all switch to much more energy efficient devices such as LED lighting and lower power energy efficient equipment so despite the uptake in electric vehciles we are still using less power than we have ever done.
As demand in electric cars increases there is no doubt that they will be able to match the supply to the demand.

Car ownership doubled in the UK in the 1930s from 1 to 2 million, currently we only have about 160/170k electric cars on the road in the UK.
How many roads and petrol stations do you think we build between 1919 and 1939 as people started to buy cars for themselves?
I'm sure the uptake in electric car will (as it already is) lead to a massive boom in infrastructure to support it.

 

[Schumi2001]

To make BEVs proper replacements for ICE, you need a 500 mile range and 5-10 minute charging.

Now, Tesla may be able to put a station somewhere in China which can 25 cars at full rate (which is nowhere near 500 miles in 10 minutes anyway).

But... you're not going to replace a UK filling station with one of those any time soon.

In theory, the grid may be able to cope. But local infrastructure can't. And the investment needed to actually upgrade like this isn't there and is so huge and disruptive it won't be here any time soon.

I'll just repeat what I've said - the average UK filling station could only support a single supercharger station without massively upgrading the incoming supply, or bringing in a couple of shipping containers of batteries.

The best example I can think of to show how this just cannot work with our current infrastructure is Exeter services on a bank holiday weekend. The petrol forecourt struggles to cope down there, imagine the supply issues with thousands of cars coming from the South East / Midlands and further desperately needing a charge.

And let's not forget that China don't care what damage they do in order to prove a point to the West.

Real world experience from one of my customers is that he needs the best part of an hour to get 200 miles range out of his Tesla Model S.

The other thing is that Tesla are known for stretching the truth - there are lots of owners complaining about charge rates - with some seeing as low as 40kW charging. Which suggests charge throttling is live and well - and that installing lots of charge points is a vanity project rather than a real reflection of the capability of the infrastructure.

 

[AndyRKett]

I don’t think you’ve understood electric cars.

This is the belief many people get hung up on, you won’t be able to charge the battery in a couple of minutes and then carry on for another 500 miles is irrelevant with electric cars.

You will be able to charge at home, overnight, so in the morning you don’t need to go to the charging/service station. The only people who will need to make a stop at a charging station are those going very long distances, however the main majority of journeys are not 300 miles plus, most people commute less than 50 miles to and from work, so a 200 mile range is more than enough for every day use.

When you get home you plug the car in like you plug your phone in. No one these days expects their phone to last all week like a tank of fuel might, why does your electric car need to drive all week back and forth to work when you can charge it at any time, at home, or at charging points near work.

The main majority of the time people are not using their cars, they are either Parked at home or at the office so there are plenty of opportunities to make sure you have a full battery. In fact many electric car owners will never visit a service station again.

If you are on a long journey you can stop off at a charging station and a 30 minute charge, a chance to use the loo, have a drink and a rest, before heading on to complete the journey.

 

[Liquid Knight II]

So it'll be a bit like Formula E where you do half the race, depleting the batteries and swap cars into one that's fully charged? Drive your Boris Tesla until the battery is nearly flat and swap it for one that isn't.

Superb in theory and the number of park and ride facilities on the outskirts of towns and cities mean the land is there. Park and rides that tend to be near industrial estates so the grid would be able to supply power to docking/charging ports with relative ease.

A typical commute you would drive your Boris Tesla to the park and ride and swap for one that's fully charged or get the electric bus into the ULEZ (London only as of April but it will be spread out throughout the UK in time). After work either take the Boris Tesla home or bus back to the park and ride then and go home in a different Boris Tesla.

Hmmmmm. Okay for a few but once the idea has caught on and a hundred or so people need a Boris Tesla it'll come unstuck.

Something has got to happen in the next twenty five to fifty years. Demand for oil will exceed supply within our lifetime and one way or another we will be priced off the road.

 

[Schumi2001]

Lots of perfect world modelling there...

Average journeys are skewed by cars which only do the school run or weekly supermarket shop... or classics doing only 1000 miles a year.

Intelligent charging can manage until you get unexpected journeys, and you go out in the morning to a car with 30 miles range when the boss wants you 200 miles away.

All very well saying you can rapid charge on the motorway whilst taking a break, but you’ll be one of several dozen wanting this whilst charge throttling turns 30 mins into 2 hours.

Whilst workplace charging also sounds ideal, do the maths on 300 x 7.5kW chargers, how do you get that power in and who pays for it?

My employers are spending billions on trying to solve these issues, with.current predictions being we will still be around 85% reliant on fossil for total energy requirements in 2040.

 

[AndyRKett]

My employers are spending billions on trying to solve these issues, with.current predictions being we will still be around 85% reliant on fossil for total energy requirements in 2040.

Who do you work for ?

Currently the U.K. depends on fossil fuels for about 80% of its power needs (40% for electricity generation which is going down dramatically year after year)

So your employer apparently expects the use of fossil fuels to increase by 5% in the next 20 years despite all the coal fired power stations being shut or converted to biomass by then.

 

[Schumi2001]

We are global and I can't remember the exact figure - but it was in that ball-park.

Even in the EU, with governments falsely driving the agenda with tax breaks, we'll still be circa 60% reliant on fossil in 2040.

The adoption of BEVs to clean up local emissions is just driving further reliance on fossil and 'peak oil' is still some way off.

It all may be a waste of time, as we are in danger of limiting plant growth by restricting CO2 levels in the atmosphere and could well be slowly strangling the planet by NOT releasing trapped carbon and regenerating CO2 to promote plant growth.

(And we have nothing to lose in this game, as we are heavily investing in alternative energies etc.)

I have no connection with this site, neither do my employers, but it's written by one of the founding members of Greenpeace who has now been ex-communicated... makes for some very interesting reading.

https://www.thegwpf.com

 

[Schumi2001]

This also makes very interesting reading as it looks at the challenges of the 'simple' charging solutions in car parks and using street lights, as well as other issues.

https://www.andersladen.nl/uploads/projecten/project/Alternative_Connections_for_Public_EV_Charging_Points.pdf

Bear in mind also that a rapid charger of 150kW costs around £65k, plus the cost of upgrading your grid connection... and can only charge a single car at a time.

(For perspective, an 8 hose fuel dispenser is around £10k installed and some models don't even need 3 phase supply - which is good, as many filling stations don't have it!)

 

[AndyRKett]

My employers are spending billions on trying to solve these issues, with.current predictions being we will still be around 85% reliant on fossil for total energy requirements in 2040.

We are global and I can't remember the exact figure - but it was in that ball-park.

Even in the EU, with governments falsely driving the agenda with tax breaks, we'll still be circa 60% reliant on fossil in 2040.

Or just making it up as you go a long it seems.

The adoption of BEVs to clean up local emissions is just driving further reliance on fossil and 'peak oil' is still some way off.

Explain how that works exactly, battery electric vehicles are not burning oil and do not use anything like the amount of oil based fluids an ICE uses.
Given that the majority of UK power is not coming from fossil fuels, which includes coal and cars definitely are not running on coal, there is no logical reason that Fossil fuel consumption would increase because 150,000 people bought electric cars so far.

It all may be a waste of time, as we are in danger of limiting plant growth by restricting CO2 levels in the atmosphere and could well be slowly strangling the planet by NOT releasing trapped carbon and regenerating CO2 to promote plant growth.

This is utter nonsense what you're basically claiming is that plants won't grow unless we burn fossil fuels and release trapped CO2.... Are you actually nuts? how do you think we had plants for the millions of years that humans didn't exists and burn fossil fuels?

Bear in mind also that a rapid charger of 150kW costs around £65k, plus the cost of upgrading your grid connection... and can only charge a single car at a time.

(For perspective, an 8 hose fuel dispenser is around £10k installed and some models don't even need 3 phase supply - which is good, as many filling stations don't have it!)

No idea what your point is hear, the technology in a rapid fast charger does not cost £65k, in the case of tesla they make their own and they install them in there own charging stations. The technology is pretty simple, the expensive part is acquiring land and building the station, this however is still not going to be any more expensive than installing thousands of litre storage tanks deep in the ground building pumps filling points, shops and all the facilities that go with it. Street side chargers also do not cost £65k and shopping centres and carparks are installing them right now wholesale to cater for the growing demand.

You still didn't mention what company you work for...

 

[Schumi2001]

You appear to be completely blinkered by the promise of endless renewable, cheap electricity. Where it comes from, nobody knows, but the government is pushing us all into ever increasing electric reliance without any plans to fix the issues in doing this.

The global demand for fossil is predicted to continue to grow, so 85%-ish reliance (I can't recall every figure I read these days) is a very real world scenario. (As I say, the EU reliance will still be around 60% in 2040, when new ICE-only vehicles will be banned. Predictions are for a global growth of fossil use of 20% above current levels by 2040). BEV does drive reliance on fossil - Germany is driving lots BEV use to clean up local emissions. Unfortunately, 40% of their electric comes from coal. And that's in addition to gas. The break even in Germany on emissions for a BEV to replace a diesel is currently running at 10-20 years, depending on size and use.

In terms of CO2 - did you actually read anything on that link? - there is some very real science linking CO2 levels with plant growth and historic climate change. There is a continual cycle of CO2 and O2 in the atmosphere, we aren't creating or destroying, just moving it around. There are as many arguments to say that we need to unlock CO2 as there are to suggest we should lock it away.

Finally, in terms of cost - someone, somewhere has to pay for this change and the installation of charging posts. I have a presentation here from one of Europe's largest providers of rapid charging solutions - and it very clearly says £65k for a single use rapid charger.

Very few people can actually justify that, as the ROI just isn't there unless you're in an area where BEVs make sense. Sadly, this means you're unlikely to see one where you actually need it on a long journey!

The charging industry is, frankly, a mess right now. Very few people can afford the cost of rapid charger installation, the mass roll out of domestic and workplace chargers is largely based on 7kW units, which are only useful for a top-up as they're around 12 hours to fully charge to 200 mile range - and if you had a reliance on these at the workplace or shopping centre, you'd need hundreds of them and the subsequent upgrade to the local grid supply as well.

One of the models proposed by charging businesses is they sign a long term lease and profit share on the space for a charger. They provide the hardware. But the lease is 10-20 years, depending on predicted use. We have already seen at least one of these businesses go under, leaving the land owner in a very tricky position.

I work for the world's largest integrated energy business, BTW. The demand and value of petrol filling stations is at a real high point - real estate is changing hands for the highest levels ever whilst we are seeing more new and returning to industry sites than we have in a generation. Fossil is a long, long way from being dead yet.

 

[AndyRKett]

You appear to be completely blinkered by the promise of endless renewable, cheap electricity. Where it comes from, nobody knows, but the government is pushing us all into ever increasing electric reliance without any plans to fix the issues in doing this.

No one said anything about cheap electricity, but it is cheaper and more environmentally friendly to produce than oil. Where it comes from is the sun, wind, wave, hydro, geothermal, what ever it does not come from burning irreplaceable resources.
There are plans and companies in place right now building infrastructure and solving these problems for the future.

Let’s face facts power generating companies know that the future is electric and so have their own significant interests in making sure that demand is met.

I can't recall every figure I read these days

BEV does drive reliance on fossil - Germany is driving lots BEV use to clean up local emissions. Unfortunately, 40% of their electric comes from coal. And that's in addition to gas. The break even in Germany on emissions for a BEV to replace a diesel is currently running at 10-20 years, depending on size and use.

Well then don’t just make them up.

Secondly Natural gas is a “non renewable resource” it however is not a fossil fuel by definition. Therefore is it not counted in the figures of EU countries as fossil fuel use.

In terms of CO2 - did you actually read anything on that link? - there is some very real science linking CO2 levels with plant growth and historic climate change. There is a continual cycle of CO2 and O2 in the atmosphere, we aren't creating or destroying, just moving it around. There are as many arguments to say that we need to unlock CO2 as there are to suggest we should lock it away.

On that link are a bunch of climate change deniers, very vocal climate change deniers, including a politician and a director who has absolutely not scientific background other than to deny climate change, and have created a business to get people to give them money to fund their little anti climate change enterprise.

Finally, in terms of cost - someone, somewhere has to pay for this change and the installation of charging posts. I have a presentation here from one of Europe's largest providers of rapid charging solutions - and it very clearly says £65k for a single use rapid charger.

I don’t doubt that for equipment, installation and the grid connection it would come close to £65k however you where comparing it to a £10k petrol pump... how much do the fuel tanks cost, the plumping, installation costs and building costs to install a petrol/diesel service station? It’s a damn site more than £10k

Very few people can actually justify that, as the ROI just isn't there unless you're in an area where BEVs make sense. Sadly, this means you're unlikely to see one where you actually need it on a long journey!

They are literally every where. My nearest shopping centres have dozens now. My supermarkets nearby have them. Train stations, petrol stations, you name it, they are installing them everywhere, I have a supercharger Tesla station just down the road from where I live, and my neighbour who made his money by owning hundreds of petrol stations all over the country and leasing them back to the oil companies, has just bought a Tesla Model X, that’s a guy who knows what he is talking about when it comes to petrol stations and the future.

The charging industry is, frankly, a mess right now. Very few people can afford the cost of rapid charger installation, the mass roll out of domestic and workplace chargers is largely based on 7kW units, which are only useful for a top-up as they're around 12 hours to fully charge to 200 mile range - and if you had a reliance on these at the workplace or shopping centre, you'd need hundreds of them and the subsequent upgrade to the local grid supply as well.

Most electric vehicles have around a 40kw battery, it’s only the very expensive longer range luxury models like the model s which comes with a 85kw+ battery. The e-Golf for example is only 35kw, and these smaller batteries will charge quite happily in 6 hours. But the if you drive 50 miles to work, charge your car for 8 hours and drive 50 miles home and put it back on charge you will never have any problems with keeping it topped up.

I work for the world's largest integrated energy business, BTW. The demand and value of petrol filling stations is at a real high point - real estate is changing hands for the highest levels ever whilst we are seeing more new and returning to industry sites than we have in a generation. Fossil is a long, long way from being dead yet.

“Integrated energy business” reads as an oil company, who would have a vested interest in keeping oil sales going for as long as possible.

We can dance round and round like this for days but essentially what you’re saying is you work for an oil company and you want to keep people buying oil.
I don’t work I’m the energy sector but am highly educated in engineering and medicine so know how to read the evidence and make an informed decision free from bias.

 

[Eklipze3k]

... but essentially what you’re saying is you work for an oil company and you want to keep people buying oil.

This was my take away too, internal propaganda seems to be working.

 

[Schumi2001]

*shrugs*

We own a lot more than oil. We are out there looking at how to ensure people will have mobility in the future, and how we are going to provide that energy. We own companies generating electricity from renewable sources, we own companies who will sell you energy and we own BEV charging businesses.

It's not quite as simple as people think. Figures used to prove that moving to BEV is trivial are heavily skewed by using distance travelled / number of registered vehicles and in no way reflect the actual usage of vehicles - and never take into account the very real 'range anxiety' issues or peak charging issues (back to that bank holiday weekend thing again).

People can bury their heads in the sand, look at a handful of chargers in a car park and think 'look, it's easy' - but, honestly, we're talking about market share of 0.7% right now. Make that just 7% and things will start of fall over very quickly. (there's another denial by the EV evangelists and Government - almost every figure quoting EV use includes hybrids, even including non-plug ins like the Prius).

We are being sold a pup here. Or, at the very least, being pushed into something that is so far from being a mature tech. and solution that it will severely restrict our travel in the future. BEV is only being championed by those who see cheap charging. Remove tax breaks and charge electric at the same duty per mile as petrol and demand drops through the floor. And many countries are ramping up coal fired power station building as renewables are predicted to fall well short of future electricity requirements. (Japan being a leading example).

 

[Eklipze3k]

Whether you like it or not, moving to electric vehicles is necessary for the long term liveability of the planet. Necessity breeds innovation - yeah, fair enough, charging infrastructure is poor now, but it can only get better and it has to because we simply cannot keep relying on fossil fuels for our energy generation/transportation needs.

Most households have (at least) 2 cars now anyway, so why not have a BEV for your daily commute and an ICE for the longer journeys, at least until the other issues are sorted out. Contrary to popular belief, people are not idiots.

If not BEV what else? Hydrogen? I'd love to see that, but until the energy needed to extract the hydrogen drops below the levels of energy it provides it's a non-starter.

If, however, an overarching committee could standardise battery design, you could alleviate some of the range concerns/fast charging concerns by having a stockpile of replacement batteries at "filling" stations, charged and ready to go, which you just swap with your current exhausted one for a nominal fee, which is then recharged at the station ready for someone else to use in a few hours. Much like with the humble AA battery, the shape and output remains the same, but the capacity has increased over time to allow the battery to run devices for longer.

I'm no engineer, but I'm sure there are engineering groups out there thinking about these things and coming up with ideas. Your posts seem to suggest that we'll be stuck with our current level of tech for the foreseeable, which is shortsighted at best and idiotic at worst.

 

[Schumi2001]

You're actually correct - BEV for the 2nd car makes a lot of sense. If you have home charging available. If you don't, then it's probably not going to work for you.

We're heavily into hydrogen - because it gives you all the advantages of zero tailpipe emissions and fossil-alike filling capabilities. But, as you say, electricity requirements are significant. If you can do this with renewables, hydrogen is a very good solution - 5kg takes you circa 500 miles. That's nearly a tonne of batteries right now.

And that's where swappable packs fall down - battery packs are heavy and large, so end up as structural elements within the vehicle, sandwiched between floor skins etc., so standardisation is going to be very, very difficult. It also means you'd be leasing a battery - something the market really doesn't like. It's virtually impossible to sell a Renault with a leased rather than owned battery. Even Formula E hasn't come up with a safe and easy way to swap battery packs... handling stacks of fairly unstable batteries outside of the safety cell of the chassis isn't something many people want to get into.

Of course we will see the phasing out of ICE over the years - and we don't know what tech. is around the corner - but it's only happening as quickly as it is because we are currently incentivised to do it. Take away the incentive or increase the tax (to recover lost ICE taxes) and the rush slows significantly (as some markets have already proven).

Let's put it this way - I'm 20 years from retirement and full expect to still be working for the same business on the day I retire.

 

[Eklipze3k]

5kg takes you circa 500 miles.

In terms of weight vs volume is it on par with petrol/diesel? Would we be looking at a 40l/40kg tank for an average hatchback? Because if so, that's some insane ranges could be achieved.

 

[Schumi2001]

Give or take, liquid fuels aren't far off the density of water - so a 40l tank is 40kg of fuel. That's vastly over-simplification (I get a headache calculating road tanker capacities due to differing fuel densities) - but it's close enough for our use.

The Toyota Mirai has a pair of tanks, largely taking up the same space as a liquid tank of the same range - and total weight is around 90kg.

A 'fag packet' calculation says this is about 30kg more than a liquid fuel tank for the same range.

However, an 85kW battery is over half a tonne for 3/5 of the range, again, on a fag-packet basis!