Coronavirus - The Thread :(

[Pugglt Auld Jock]

Come on Bernie. I dont have to baby sit you so you can learn English. You were able to work it out for yourself. No doubt you can do the same in the future.

Sorry judderbar - and I certainly don't mean to cause you any offence - but I hate all these shortenings. When I worked as a trainer in vehicle maintenance and repair I was technically a civil servant. I was a technical grade (Instructional Officer Grade 1 to be exact. Nearest clerical grade equivalent of a Higher Executive Officer. (So an IO.1 as against an HEO!) Our staff rest room was always full of circulars, which had very little relevance to us technical grades, and were almost indecipherable due to all these shortened references! The outcome in the end was that I just completely ignored them! I'm not aware that it ever had any impact on me. So I'm with you Bernie - lets just have things nice and clear to avoid confusion (Must say though, I think I could have worked out ICU on my own.)

 

[Joiner]

China.

After shutting down their country for a few weeks to tidy up their own mess, crippling the rest of the world with this virus, they are now back in full swing making money selling all the PPE and ventilators the world is screaming out for to help the dying!!!

Excuse me for being a cynic.

Have a look at their " wet " markets..........................

 

[varesecrazy]

Sorry judderbar - I'm with you Bernie - lets just have things nice and clear to avoid confusion (Must say though, I think I could have worked out ICU on my own.)

I agree ..Im a native English speaker and the UK press slip in these things..
I then scroll back through the article..
No explanation.. still none the wiser

The map of the 'Midlands' in that link
BIRMINGHAM shown centre left

If you live at the letter B.. you are in Wales
(different country..and government.. with different rules)

You would be transported to the nearest big hospital
(the letter I : Shrewsbury,England)
but they have limited resource.. so for
'Specialist care' you would go to Stoke
right at the top border of 'the Midlands'

I do wonder if these studies actually have a grasp of the realities.
Where I live in SouthWales has the highest confirmed Covid infection rate of the UK..
Probably by counting differently to England..

 

[jimboy]

I've brought this up before, about the shorting of the words in the English language right across the board,& even worse the upward style of speaking & worse still vocal fry. but that's a slightly different take on things.

I said before I used to be on a forum for information about a daily driver I had. The average age was 17 & they communicated by code, the language was terrible. Aye! bad memories

Slips into laziness as said, personally, I think it becomes a bad habit..
Make an effort everyone.....

 

[Pugglt Auld Jock]

I do wonder if these studies actually have a grasp of the realities.
Where I live in SouthWales has the highest confirmed Covid infection rate of the UK..
Probably by counting differently to England..

Yes Charlie, I'm taking all these figures with a very large helping of scepticism. I don't think we're all counting "apples" alone. a lot of the figures, I believe, include a fair amount of pears, bananas and, maybe, even broccoli? I've reached the conclusion also that, beyond our personal commitment to isolating and social distancing, the figures are pretty meaningless and we shouldn't be letting them panic us.

I'm occupying myself with quite a lot of reading (I'm an SF nut), hoovering the house, gardening, "fiddling unnecessarily" with the cars and taking a daily walk. I'm not really worrying for myself - I'm convinced I'm immortal! but I am worrying about Mrs J after the serious Pneumonia she had following our flue "A" incident just after Christmas. I also worry for my boys who both smoke. Thank goodness the children seem to be being spared.

 

[chris3234]

Its getting even more worrying as healthy people are dying as well.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11281394/healthy-mum-dies-coronavirus-daughter-ill-funeral/

Without sounding too horrid she was 65 meaning getting to the age where immune system ect starts weaking making people more susceptible to illness especially if she had undiagnosed illness before hand

 

[judderbar]

http://covid19icu.cl.cam.ac.uk/

Interesting real time modelling here of ICU beds.


Current forecast is for midlands to be at 107% of current capacity by 6th of April.

it was my understanding the work of these modellers will be the actual thing that drives the NHS to prepare for the 6th of April where under the model at present half of England will be over 100% in a few weeks time.

 

[varesecrazy]

it was my understanding the work of these modellers will be the actual thing that drives the NHS to prepare for the 6th of April where under the model at present half of England will be over 100% in a few weeks time.

Correct
But there are several models published..
They then choose an outcome that appears more feasible
(A little like weather forecasting..)

 

[judderbar]

Without sounding too horrid she was 65 meaning getting to the age where immune system ect starts weaking making people more susceptible to illness especially if she had undiagnosed illness before hand

By the pictures she is close to coming under the category of morbidly obese.

76% of coronavirus critically ill patients are overweight.

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Artic...nd-obesity-industry-urged-to-act-post-crisis#

 

[jimboy]

I'll say again, I obviously look at the news on the television, but I don't go looking for negative offerings especially so in that type of newspapers, the ones that are no better than an adult comic.

 

[chr1s]

By the pictures she is close to coming under the category of morbidly obese.

76% of coronavirus critically ill patients are overweight.

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Artic...nd-obesity-industry-urged-to-act-post-crisis#

But bear in mind that around 63% of UK adults are overweight, and closer to 70% of UK men are overweight (and over 70% of the critically ill patients in your link were men).
You might expect around 65% of these patients to be overweight, purely based on these figures.

EDIT: The average age of the patients in the data set is 64, and a higher percentage of over-45's are overweight. Based on the graph below, I would estimate that a spread of patient ages (average age of 64, 70% male) would have in the region of the 76% overweight, so I am not convinced it is statistically relevant.
From NHS report https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet/statistics-on-obesity-physical-activity-and-diet-england-2019/part-3-adult-obesity:


This makes your 76% statistic a bit less alarming than when considered in isolation. It seems reasonable that being overweight increases the risk from CV, but perhaps not by such a huge amount.

 

[Motorcyclist Colin]

I got through the 2nd World War, without knowing how long it would take, with bombs falling along "Bomb Alley" where we lived, without quite enough to eat, without new toys, without ,most fruit, without sweets, and sleeping, (or trying to) in a freezing and damp Anderson shelter. No holidays, no trips out, some schooling under the Morrison shelter, and running for shelter when the Doodlebugs came over. Not even quite enough medicines.
However, my happiest and most memorable Christmas ever, was spent under the stairs, but Dad had somehow found a Christmas tree and had made a silver star that lit up, absolute magic
I survived the Doodlebugs and I will survive the Coronabugs
SO WILL YOU

 

[DaveMcT]

Thanks for that Colin. You have really put things in perspective.

AN old workmate did FOUR tours of duty in Halifax bombers as flight engineer. He had many stories to tell but as he said anyone who was lucky enough to survive always did have lucky escapes.

My Aunt (a nurse and midwife) went to Malta in 1937 to help with their child mortality problems. She left in 1942 having survived the siege. The night she was made up to sister and given her own room she could not sleep for noise outside so crashed in the linen cupboard. She awoke to find her bedroom had vanished with the entire end of the building from a bomb hit.

One of my patients (then well into his 80s) came in because he could not walk straight. He would literally trample on his wife if she walked on hi right. At age 19, he was blown up by a V1 bomb in London East End. He was dug out just before suffocation. Taken to hos[ital and declared ok. 6 months later he was doing Commando/SAS training. He stayed in the army until the late 1950s.
When I looked at his head, there was a heck of a divot in the right middle of his skull above right ear. So much for no historical skull fractures. Location just right to cause hyperactivity in his left leg. I was not expecting much change but McTimoney chiropractic improved his ability to walk straight. His wife was impressed so must have done a good job.

 

[09 johno]

I still don't get why China is the culprit, has anyone noticed Russia is one of the last countries to be infected and is already fully prepared,
The day we went into lockdown the Russians sailed a fleet of ships into our waters....including landing ships.
considering their recent history of poisonings etc...……...

Pot Stirred

 

[AndyRKett]

This makes your 76% statistic a bit less alarming than when considered in isolation. It seems reasonable that being overweight increases the risk from CV, but perhaps not by such a huge amount.

Also a distinction needs to be draw between the level of risk if you are just over weight, or if you are obese, morbidly obese etc.

I can argue on the BMI scale I am "over weight" with a BMI of about 26. however I run regularly, go to the gym and see a personal trainer regularly. I'm much fitter than the average person in the UK. and have no other conditions that would make me a greater risk and I do not meet the criteria for obese, I'd be a massively lower risk than a 30 year old who is morbidly obese with blood pressure problems T2 diabetes and asthma.

When is comes to risk you have to take every case at its merit, and not just focus on one factor.

So you can say that 70% of the UK population are "overweight" but about only 30% are obese and less so morbidly obese.

Someone who is morbidly obese without "underlying health conditions" as the press like to hark on about, are still at a massively higher risk because of the stress put on the heart and lungs by the additional weight. Obesity in itself is an underlying health condition.

 

[AndyRKett]

Pot Stirred

Depends if you want to buy into conspiracy theories or just follow the evidence.

Russia are always sailing things back and forth past the UK, its the only route for them to get ships from their bases in the North of russia, down to the black sea.

Also given that this has crashed world oil prices and stopped a huge amount of trade between countries (including their own) it's likely to have a massive impact on the russian economy, which if you look into it was pretty poor to begin with, despite their massive territory, they have about half the economy of the uk.
Also as a weapon Covid is pretty terrible.

 

[Pugglt Auld Jock]

Anyone looked at the German figures on this? Looks like 451 fatalities to date? and their first died quite early on when someone came back from China I think. Wonder what they're doing differently?

 

[chris3234]

Anyone looked at the German figures on this? Looks like 451 fatalities to date? and their first died quite early on when someone came back from China I think. Wonder what they're doing differently?

Apparently they are testing a lot more people so death % is a lot lower then the UK and other places
Also probably a lot of other reasons that could effect it such as age of people and overalls health

 

[Ricardo Silva]

I got through the 2nd World War, without knowing how long it would take, with bombs falling along "Bomb Alley" where we lived, without quite enough to eat, without new toys, without ,most fruit, without sweets, and sleeping, (or trying to) in a freezing and damp Anderson shelter. No holidays, no trips out, some schooling under the Morrison shelter, and running for shelter when the Doodlebugs came over. Not even quite enough medicines.
However, my happiest and most memorable Christmas ever, was spent under the stairs, but Dad had somehow found a Christmas tree and had made a silver star that lit up, absolute magic
I survived the Doodlebugs and I will survive the Coronabugs
SO WILL YOU

Most of us are spoiled brats and never had true difficulties in life. Most of people i know cries because they cant afford this car \ bike \ jewels \ hollyday etc. It is very hard to speak to someone that is just happy with what they have. To me, as older i get the less i need (i'm 36 by the way). Food on the table, a roof, health and the company of those i love, especially my little 2 years old daughter. There is nothing material i can't get ride of if needed. I love my cars and bikes but its just stuff. Joy is free and if we are healthy and lucky to have food and good friends, there is nothing more we need. This virus will change our life \ economy for sure and will kill a lot of people. We should protect ourselves and be aware of the situation but we should never allow this to take control of our mind. The world keeps rolling, there will always be new diseases and people will always die because this is our certain destiny from the moment we were born.

 

[DaveMcT]

China could not have suppressed whistle blowers, got the virus genome, been welding people into apartment blocks and all the rest from the time they claim it all began. It's likely to have actually kicked off in late summer, but suppressed by China until they realised it was unstoppable. They know their horrific wet markets are dangerous but it suits them economically to keep them going.

Taiwan and S Korea (with experience of SARS-1 and others) used temperature checks, face masks and blood testing of symptomatic patients from the moment China got around to telling us there was a problem.

This is a Dr from S Korea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU&t=471s