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Old 23-03-2020   #1
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Lightbulb Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Rather than spread these all about (no pun intended..), let's keep one central thread here.

As some of you may know, I'm out in Taiwan, where they were very early on the ball (to the point where a lot of people, including me, thought they were being ridiculous) to stop the spread and infection.

To give you an idea of what it's like here - we've had 2 deaths TOTAL - and when the second poor soul died at the weekend, there was mass hysteria on the news... for ONE death. People would go insane if we had the Europe levels!!?

We don't have lock down here and life goes on pretty much as normal except for a few changes - if you want to go into a public building (so hospitals, clinics, government office, airline office - I guess *office*) you need to:

1) Wear a face mask (which I'm going to say 30-40% of the population did before the outbreak anyway) < this one is now also required on public transport too.
2) Have a head temperature scan.
3) Wash your hands at the door with alcohol cleanser.

And that's it.

Everyone who travelled abroad since March 4 had to go into 14 day self quarantine, with a £25,000 fine if you broke it (which someone did get this weekend by going to a nightclub). They track you by phone. If you leave it at home and go out, they will sense it's not moving and send a text - if you don't reply, they send someone to your house.

I was due to fly back to the UK in 2 weeks - but after looking at what happened over the weekend, I can't believe it. Boris asked for everyone to social distance, and what did they all do...? Go out to the park and the beach

I understand this kind of thing has not happened in the west before, but it's more serious than people are understanding. The only reason we have kept it under control here (and places like Singapore and South Korea - who originally had a massive outbreak, but totally got their numbers back down) is because people follow the rules.

Unfortunately the social distancing is required - unless everyone masks up (to stop coughing and sneezing sending the particles everywhere, plus you can't touch your nose and mouth wearing them) which just can't happen as the UK doesn't have the capacity.

So please people, be safe. It doesn't have to get as bad as Italy, numbers in South Korea (for example) were able to peak at just two weeks, with a decline since, so it is possible - but people need to be vigilant.

I'd love to know what everyone is feeling back home now - my parents don't seem too bothered, which worries me, as they ain't no spring chickens!!
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Old 23-03-2020   #2
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Hi.
I get the feeling here there is a couldn't care less attitude. That will change when they loose a loved one or a close friend.
People MUST follow government advice and stop thinking about what they are missing, namely the pub, football, or what they are used to. During the world wars we were obedient to Govt rules but this has gone out of the window.
I'd say just realise this Covid 19 is no hoax it's for real and by your selfishness you could cause the death of a loved one, friend or colleague plus you are contributing to the NHS failing to cope.
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Old 23-03-2020   #3
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

I can imagine that what is putting people off is the thought that their liberties could be taken away long term.

Personally, I think the government should have a done a 2 week temporary lock down, just to get things under control - then gradually eased it open after that.

Every day here the CDC does a TV release, listing the details of all the new infections (we only get 0 - 20 a day) telling you which area they live, where they got the infection from and which places they visited.

Then anyone who might have been in contact with that person (who is of course anonymous) can go and get tested to make sure they aren't spreading it.

Local infections are basically down to 0 - it's all imported (people returning home, or some of the idiots that went abroad because the flights were cheap). And if it stays like this, there will be no need to go to full lock down.
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Old 23-03-2020   #4
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Millions of People in England live on top of each other in such densely packed housing they can't self isolate - and can't go out or the streets and parks would be too crowded. Green belts have strangled cities and crammed all the housing into such a small area.
When they get the virus they will still have to go to the supermarket to get food, with all the crowds and multiple visits due to the shortages and restrictions.
Those who haven't got the virus yet are trying to escape to the highlands to self isolate in their camper vans.
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Old 23-03-2020   #5
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

I will still be going out for exercise but I shall practice social distancing

to anybody I encounter ,which won't be many ,although I live just a couple

of miles outside Greater London boundary.

I've even managed some top down driving in the clown car FIAT....206 miles on

the 12th.

I agree with previous post ,many aren't taking it seriously and will still be socialising up close when it is foolish to do so.
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Old 23-03-2020   #6
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

There are multiple governments doing multiple different things, in this instance my sceptical mind thinks that maybe Taiwan isnít being 100% honest with how they report deaths, especially as Taiwan are not part of the WHO.

Most deaths from Covid, usually come from someone who have other significant illnesses, Lung or heart condition are most affected. So if someone dies and has a heart problem, the authorities can choose to report the death from Covid or from the heart problem. That said placed like Taiwan always had a better handle on general spread of illness.

Here in the UK we are not so good at hygiene, we are not good at taking direction from government and in this instance the government has been terrible at putting restrictions in place to prevent its spread.

Iíve seen in the news today young people in both France and Germany deliberately setting out to cough and sneeze on people to spread any virus they might have. There is a belief that the problem wonít effect the young as such the sooner they spread it amongst the old they will clear the bug and can move on without restrictions, here in Europe there is not such a strong belief in looking after the elderly, however in Asian countries they have much more respect for their older relatives.
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Old 23-03-2020   #7
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Finns are for generations practicing social distancing so i am supposing it will not be a big problem here

http://finnishness.blogs.tamk.fi/201...innish-habits/

We were amongst the first to panic however. We got our beans and loo roll after the australians went bananas weeks ago. Otherwise the whole thing seems way over done. Even the italians only have 1 death per ten thousand people- Potentially we could end up with world war 3 over what amounts to a few deaths when we are all going to die anyway

Joke: Best said with australian accent. Two guys in an old folks home. First bloke. Did you come here to die? Second. No I came here yesterdie
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Last edited by judderbar; 23-03-2020 at 17:20.
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Old 23-03-2020   #8
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Listen to Theo Usherwood from LBC (he's their fact checker) then decide if its worth the risk. He's young middle aged so should(?) be fine. However,he had to be carried out to the ambulance and by the sounds of it he's lucky to have survived.

We were led to believe this thing was mild to fit young to middle aged people. Clearly that's not the whole story. but perhaps why people don't take it seriously.

Who will get the full monty - pneumonia, etc? Who will just get a headache etc. Who knows?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2JBQsJp5-s
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Old 23-03-2020   #9
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Quote Originally Posted by judderbar View Post
Finns are for generations practicing social distancing so i am supposing it will not be a big problem here

http://finnishness.blogs.tamk.fi/201...innish-habits/

We were amongst the first to panic however. We got our beans and loo roll after the australians went bananas weeks ago. Otherwise the whole thing seems way over done. Even the italians only have 1 death per ten thousand people- Potentially we could end up with world war 3 over what amounts to a few deaths when we are all going to die anyway

Joke: Best said with australian accent. Two guys in an old folks home. First bloke. Did you come here to die? Second. No I came here yesterdie
Your calcs for Italian deaths are way too low. The death rate out of tested patients are much greater.
I see nothing funny about Covid 19, it is serious and I hope and pray that anyone who doesn't take government advice or think it's a joke that they don't loose a loved one or close friend.
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Old 23-03-2020   #10
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Quote Originally Posted by murphyv310 View Post
Your calcs for Italian deaths are way too low. The death rate out of tested patients are much greater.
Youíre right itís currently about one death in every 9952 people (60.48million population and 6077 deaths) oh wait thatís lower....

These are the stats we actually have to work with, there is no point making any other assumptions, the scary thing is the rate of increase of deaths in Italy 600 - 800 a day
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Last edited by AndyRKett; 23-03-2020 at 18:14.
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Old 23-03-2020   #11
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Quote Originally Posted by AndyRKett View Post
You’re right it’s currently about one death in every 9952 people (60.48million population and 6077 deaths) the scary thing is the rate of increase of deaths in Italy 600 - 800 a day
As of this evening 6,077 deaths in a population of 60,480,000


1 in 10,000

current world death rate is 16,312 per 7,700,000,000


1 in 472,000

The italian deaths are hugely skewed towards older people. 87% of the dead are over 70 as of 13th march.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/
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Last edited by judderbar; 23-03-2020 at 19:14.
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Old 23-03-2020   #12
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Quote Originally Posted by AndyRKett View Post
Here in the UK we are not so good at hygiene, we are not good at taking direction from government and in this instance the government has been terrible at putting restrictions in place to prevent its spread.
I disagree, it's the lack of these very things that caused so much death and suffering in places like Spain and Italy.

Their outbreaks have been so bad as they broke out and were transmitted around hospitals and health care establishments first.


Even though the disease was established and identified in China at the end of last year, these countries health services, governments and public were just too ignorant and did not take enough precautions isolating the infected to start with.

The small amount of cases that did originally present, infected everyone within, patients, staff and visitors as they were too slow in identifying it and as doctors and health professionals tend to work in more than one hospital, often traveling between smaller local hospitals treating patients from different areas, they spreading the virus wider and further.

This sort of institutional transmission leads 1 to infect between 30 to 40 and they are the vulnerable, the sick in hospitals and the elderly in care, then spreading out from there.

I've just returned from Cyprus and they have had the same problem, Pafos hospital is totally closed as they treated infectious patients as they had colds or 'flu and it ripped through the place like wild fire. The original source was one doctor returning from holiday abroad that treated patients in the hospital and in private practice.
There are only a few cases that spread socially.


We on the other hand have, as far as I know from the large hospital I work for, which is one of the few major infection centres, identified patients or treated them as infectious before they were admitted and took the appropriate action from there, isolating properly from other patients and staff and tracing their contacts and quarantining them.


Our transmissions are building, but we aren't at the same point of the outbreak as some like Italy and Spain and we haven't (yet) got the same transmission routes as them. Our transmission routes are a bit different at the moment and are being handled differently because of this.

We are now in the throws of a social transmission problem which statically isn't as rampant, around 1 infectimg 2 to 3 others without controls, rather than the rampaging transmission problem that has spread through so many of our neighbours health establishments and institutions.

I believe our government and we (barring a few idiots) have got the controls about as good as it can be.

Sure we will see a lot more deaths here, but the current social contact controls have been carefully timed to reduce the spread of a "social bloom" that is only a week or so away.

I also believe we'll see new controls near or when we are in the height of this bloom.


And please don't believe all the crap that the NHS is in a **** state.
Our NHS is envied around the world.

I believe they have already prevented or reduced the chances of serious institutional outbreaks that have hammered so many in places like Italy and Spain and they will rise to any occasion that faces them.

Yes we have a war on, but the NHS are our Avengers and I know all my colleagues are gagging at the bit to do what's needed.

When the brown hits the fan there are no finer in the world.
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Old 23-03-2020   #13
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Quote Originally Posted by Goudrons View Post
I disagree, it's the lack of these very things that caused so much death and suffering in places like Spain and Italy.

Their outbreaks have been so bad as they broke out and were transmitted around hospitals and health care establishments first.


Even though the disease was established and identified in China at the end of last year, these countries health services, governments and public were just too ignorant and did not take enough precautions isolating the infected to start with.

The small amount of cases that did originally present, infected everyone within, patients, staff and visitors as they were too slow in identifying it and as doctors and health professionals tend to work in more than one hospital, often traveling between smaller local hospitals treating patients from different areas, they spreading the virus wider and further.

This sort of institutional transmission leads 1 to infect between 30 to 40 and they are the vulnerable, the sick in hospitals and the elderly in care, then spreading out from there.

I've just returned from Cyprus and they have had the same problem, Pafos hospital is totally closed as they treated infectious patients as they had colds or 'flu and it ripped through the place like wild fire. The original source was one doctor returning from holiday abroad that treated patients in the hospital and in private practice.
There are only a few cases that spread socially.


We on the other hand have, as far as I know from the large hospital I work for, which is one of the few major infection centres, identified patients or treated them as infectious before they were admitted and took the appropriate action from there, isolating properly from other patients and staff and tracing their contacts and quarantining them.


Our transmissions are building, but we aren't at the same point of the outbreak as some like Italy and Spain and we haven't (yet) got the same transmission routes as them. Our transmission routes are a bit different at the moment and are being handled differently because of this.

We are now in the throws of a social transmission problem which statically isn't as rampant, around 1 infectimg 2 to 3 others without controls, rather than the rampaging transmission problem that has spread through so many of our neighbours health establishments and institutions.

I believe our government and we (barring a few idiots) have got the controls about as good as it can be.

Sure we will see a lot more deaths here, but the current social contact controls have been carefully timed to reduce the spread of a "social bloom" that is only a week or so away.

I also believe we'll see new controls near or when we are in the height of this bloom.


And please don't believe all the crap that the NHS is in a **** state.
Our NHS is envied around the world.

I believe they have already prevented or reduced the chances of serious institutional outbreaks that have hammered so many in places like Italy and Spain and they will rise to any occasion that faces them.

Yes we have a war on, but the NHS are our Avengers and I know all my colleagues are gagging at the bit to do what's needed.

When the brown hits the fan there are no finer in the world.
Where is your evidence for any of this ?

Currently in the uk we are not testing staff for the virus which can exhibit no symptoms but still be contagious for days before symptoms start. Because of this there is no monitoring of staff in the nhs transmitting it around the hospitals. There is a serious lack of protective equipment for staff which means they can easily contract it from patients and patients can easily contract it from staff.

We are very good in the uk at isolating patients and nursing them appropriately in isolation but at the moment we are not looking after are staff and therefore not looking after our patients.

Staff take the illness home to their family and guess what the only kids still in school are key workers, this means it can find its way back into the hospitals with staff members who are not directly looking after Covid Pts but maybe looking after a huge number of different, vulnerable people.

The NHS is not the problem itís the serious lack of equipment and testing which is the biggest danger. Currently at the moment we are tracking the Italians exactly 2 weeks behind on cases and deaths. The next 7 days will show how well we are responding, however the last 7 days are not good.

Weíve all see the news today of a 38 year old otherwise healthy nurse who is in intensive care, another 18 year old who has died in the last 25 hours, and if you look at what has gone on in other parts of the world health care staff are dropping left right and centre. Even the Chinese Doctor who initially tried to highlight the problem has now died.

My wife is a doctor, I know whatís going on in the NHS and at the moment am waiting to be called upon to head back into the NHS, given my past experience, this is why I am watching everything closely. Currently the NHS is not doing well with the crisis, itís not terrible yet but terrible is potentially days away.
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Old 23-03-2020   #14
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

Quote Originally Posted by Goudrons View Post
I disagree, it's the lack of these very things that caused so much death and suffering in places like Spain and Italy.

Their outbreaks have been so bad as they broke out and were transmitted around hospitals and health care establishments first.

Please get your facts right before posting
Ive lived in Italy for over 20 years, .
Hygiene is second to none, and the virus was not transmitted around hospitals first.
I find your post very offensive due to the situation out here.

All I can add is this is very serious, take all precautions, and stay safe
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Old 23-03-2020   #15
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Re: Coronavirus - The Thread :(

To add to my post above.
Yesterday a colleague died aged 54.
This Virus has no limits and does not discriminate.
We are even having doctors die due to the Virus

The UK is about 2 weeks behind us in Italy and I hope it does nit hit you like its hit us.

The NHS is a great health service and that will help, but you need to help the Medics and Nurses so they can help you.

STAY IN DOORS
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