I think it is a fair warning if the back box outer skin has rotted through likely the middle section won't be far away.
I had my first MOT advisory for a rotten outer backbox skin in 2015. Since then, both the backbox and the centre pipe have remained servicable through five more British winters.
So my own experience is that you might get another five years or more out of your exhaust after the outer backbox skin first starts peeling away.
Do check the rubber mountings each year, though - these are often the first parts to fail and many an otherwise functional exhaust has had to be replaced because it simply fell off the car.
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