It's probably a dodgy alarm sensor somewhere that's making it think there's been a break-in when there hasn't.
Does anyone know if the alarm keeps a history of what triggered it, and whether you can query it with ECUScan?
In the meantime, do you have the buttons that allow you to disable parts of the alarm? Mine are in the centre of the roof at the front.
The one with a picture of the car being towed with a big hook disables the movement sensor. Try pressing this before locking it for a while and see how it behaves.
Then try locking it after pressing the other one - I forget what its icon is. This disables the interior movement sensor. It's what you should press if you leave a person or dog locked in, so they don't set it off. After trying the tow-away disabling above then try locking it after pressing this.
Your results should give an indication of where to start looking.
Finally, do you have a sunroof? If so then I know someone else here had issues with a loose sunroof setting off the interior movement sensor (as it would).
I'm thinking the battery change may be a coincidence, or perhaps the power cycle made a dying sensor die a bit more.
I think some scientific experiments over a good few days are needed.