Stop start driving at this time of year does nothing for economy, I only do about 7 miles each way to work at the moment, my engine is barely up to temp when its switched off, meaning i'm getting closer to 33-35mpg at the moment.
That said come the summer and some big drives and i'll not be a kick in the arse off 45mpg easy.
Worth a tank (not £20, a full tank) of V-power, or Tesco 99, or failing that Super-UL from any garage that does it. At this time of year you'll notice a nice fuel economy increase, in the range of 1-2mpg, car warms up a bit quicker too.
Variation could be down to anything. Maybe you percieved the traffic was the same but it wasn't. Was it dark v's day time, did you have lights on, heated rear windscreen, air-con, heater any of these on in comparision to a day when they were not on may make a difference in mpg. I drive with my sidelights on ALWAYS and it does make a small mpg difference but I'd rather have them on for safety and visibility.
Tyre pressure can make a differnce, and dependent on outside temp can affect pressure, so unless you check every day there is going to be some variance.
Seeing as i'm late to this party I felt the need to comment on the previous comment of any modern car with a modern small engine should do great mpg. Well they kind of do, my 1.2 can do 44mpg with a 6 speed box. I had a 1984 4-speed 1.3 Escort with a carb and it could do 40mpg easy.... why is this? Well the Escort weighed about 2/3 that of the Stilo. So the 1.2 Stilo engine is doing a great job really.